SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) L.A. Lakers (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS)
at (2) Denver (10-5 SU, 13-2 ATS)
The Lakers, on the brink of their second straight trip to the NBA Finals, travel to the Pepsi Center for Game 6 of their best-of-7 series against the Nuggets, who must hold home court to stay alive.Los Angeles scored the first 11 points of the fourth quarter in Game 5 Wednesday, breaking a 76-76 tie en route to a 103-94 win as a six-point chalk and taking a 3-2 series lead in the process. Kobe Bryant had 22 points and eight assists, Lamar Odom (19 points, 14 rebounds) and Pau Gasol (14 points, 10 rebounds) notched double-doubles, and the Lakers outshot the Nuggets by 10 percentage points (48.7-38.6).Carmelo Anthony paced the Nuggets with 31 points, but no other Denver play scored more than 12, and streaky guard J.R. Smith (seven points) went just 3 of 13 from the floor, including 1 of 10 from three-point range, after scoring 24 points in a Game 4 victory at home Monday.Los Angeles, which swept the Nuggets out of the playoffs in the first round last year, is 13-2 SU in its last 15 postseason games against Denver. The Lakers are also now 6-3 SU (5-4 ATS) against the Nuggets this season, and going back further, Los Angeles is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 clashes in this rivalry.Denver is 40-9 SU (30-18-1 ATS) on the year at home, including a 7-1 SU and ATS mark in the playoffs, the only blemish being a six-point loss to the Lakers in Game 3. Los Angeles is 32-16 SU (26-22 ATS) on the highway this season, but just 3-4 SU and ATS in the playoffs.The Lakers have cashed in eight of their last 11 as an underdog and sport additional positive ATS streaks of 21-8-2 as a road pup and 6-1-1 when catching five to 10½ points. However, they are on pointspread plunges of 0-4 after a spread-cover and 0-5 coming off a SU win.The Nuggets are on a 24-8 SU tear dating to the regular season, and along with their 13-2 ATS playoff mark, they carry positive pointspread streaks of 21-6 overall, 7-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a non-cover, 7-1 as a playoff chalk and 11-4 against the Pacific Division.The under has hit in four of five games in this series and is 10-2 in the last 12 clashes between these squads, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Denver.Los Angeles has stayed low in eight of its last nine contests and the “under” is on additional surges for the Lakers of 12-3 overall, 9-1 in the conference finals and 11-4 on the highway. Finally, the under is 5-1 in Denver’s last six against Pacific Division teams, but the over is 11-5 in its last 16 home games (all as a favorite).
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (26-20) at Milwaukee (27-20)
Two of the top three teams in the N.L. Central begin a weekend series at Miller Park, with the Reds’ Johnny Cueto (4-2, 2.37 ERA) scheduled to take the ball in the opener against the Brewers’ Braden Looper (4-3, 4.47).Cincinnati brings a four-game winning streak into Milwaukee, including a three-game home sweep of the Astros that ended with Wednesday’s 6-1 victory. The Reds, who trail the Brewers by a half-game and the Cardinals by one full game in the N.L. Central standings, are also 6-1 in their last seven divisional contests, but they’ve lost 14 of their last 19 after a day off.The Brewers have lost two in a row and five out of six – all against right-handed starters – and the big problem has been a struggling offense that’s produced three runs or fewer in all six contests (a total of 12 runs in all). In fact, Milwaukee has gone nine straight games without scoring more than four runs. Despite their recent funk – which comes on the heels of a 22-6 roll – the Brewers are still on hot streaks of 12-5 at home, 17-6 against the N.L. Central, 16-5 against teams with a winning record and 10-1 in series openers.The Reds have taken three of the first five in the season series, and they’re 8-3 in their last 11 games at Miller Park.Cueto got a no-decision in Cincinnati’s 4-3 11-inning victory over Cleveland on Sunday, giving up all three runs (two earned) in seven innings. The right-hander has pitched at least seven innings in seven straight starts, giving up three earned runs or fewer in six of those contests, and he’s posted a 1.98 ERA during this stretch. With Cueto on the bump, the Reds are on streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 against the N.L. Central and 4-1 on Friday, and they’ve won all four of his road starts this year, with the right-hander going 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA.Looper surrendered five runs (four earned) on nine hits over six innings in Saturday’s 6-2 loss at Minnesota, and he’s got a 5.67 ERA in his last six starts. On the bright side, the Brewers are 4-1 in the right-hander’s five home outings this season, with Looper going 2-1 with a 4.66 ERA.As a rookie last season, Cueto went 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three starts against the Brewers, giving up two runs in all three games, but Cincinnati lost two of those contests. Meanwhile, Looper is 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA and eight saves in 38 career games (eight starts) against the Reds, including a 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two starts this season.The over is 4-0 in Looper’s last four divisional starts, but with Cueto pitching, the “under” is on runs of 6-2 overall, 11-2-1 on the road and 4-1 versus the N.L. Central.The over is 4-1 in the five series meetings this year and 8-3 in the last 11 clashes in Milwaukee. Additionally, the Reds have topped the total in seven of their last eight games against the N.L. Central. However, the under is on streaks of 12-5-1 for Cincinnati on the road, 10-2-2 for Cincy after a day off, 4-1-1 for Cincy on Friday, 4-1 for Milwaukee overall, 10-4 for Milwaukee at home and 20-6-2 for Milwaukee after a defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (28-20) at Toronto (27-23)
The freefalling Blue Jays look to snap a nine-game losing skid when they hand the ball to young right-hander Casey Janssen (0-1, 4.50) to begin a three-game series against the Red Sox and Tim Wakefield (6-2, 3.99) at the Rogers Centre.Toronto capped a winless nine-game road trip – the first time that’s happened in franchise history – with a disastrous 12-10 loss at Baltimore in 11 innings on Wednesday, blowing an 8-3 eighth-inning lead and a 10-8 11th-inning lead. The Blue Jays have hit just one home run – Aaron Hill’s two-run shot in the 11th at Baltimore on Wednesday – in its last eight games and only two long balls during its losing streak which started with three losses in Boston on May 19-21.On a positive note, Toronto has won four in a row and 13 of its last 17 at home, and it is 43-21 at home dating to last year. However, the Jays have lost eight straight games to A.L. East foes, and they’ve dropped seven of eight (and four in a row) to Boston since last season.The Red Sox are coming off a four-game series at Minnesota, and they salvaged a split with Thursday’s 3-1 victory. Still, Boston is a middling 3-4 in its last seven games and 7-8 in its last 15 (3-6 on the road). The Red Sox are also 3-6 in their last nine games versus right-handed starters, but they’re on positive stretches of 14-4 against winning teams, 4-0 against the A.L. East and 22-8 in series openers.Boston improved to 7-1 in Wakefield’s last eight starts with Sunday’s 12-5 rout of the Mets. The veteran knuckleballer did give up five runs on seven hits and four walks in six innings, but still picked up his sixth win of the season. Wakefield started the year with four consecutive quality starts, but he’s turned in just two such efforts in his last five trips to the mound, with his ERA jumping from 1.86 to 3.99 during this stretch.Wakefield is 2-2 with a 4.83 ERA in five road efforts this season and 17-11 with a 3.68 ERA in 49 career appearances (39 starts) against the Blue Jays. One of those victories came on May 19, when he allowed five hits and a run in eight strong innings and picked up the 2-1 home win. The right-hander has gone at least six innings in 10 straight starts against the Jays, giving up three earned runs or fewer in seven of the last nine.Janssen returned to the big leagues for the first time in 2009 on Saturday and lost 4-3 at Atlanta, yielding three runs on eight hits in six innings. Dating to last season, Toronto has lost eight of Janssen’s last nine starts, including the last five in a row, going 1-4 at home during this period. In his brief career, Janssen is 4-6 with a 3.36 ERA and two saves in 44 games (nine starts) at the Rogers Centre. Also, in eight career relief appearances against the Red Sox, he has pitched 7 1/3 scoreless innings.The over is 9-2-1 in Wakefield’s last 12 starts overall, 7-1-1 in his last nine on the road and 6-2 in his last eight against divisional opponents, but the under is 5-1-3 in his last nine Friday starts, 18-6-2 in his last 26 outings versus the Blue Jays and 7-0-1 in his last eight starts in Toronto. Meanwhile, with Janssen pitching, the “under” is on runs of 5-2 overall, 5-0-1 at home and 4-1 on Friday.The Blue Jays carry “under” trends of 5-2 overall, 8-3 against the A.L. East, 5-1 in series openers and 4-1 against righty starters. Boston is on “under” stretches of 10-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 on the road, 4-1-3 on Friday and 6-1-1 against right-handed hurlers. Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry, but six of the last eight battles north of the border have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
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